fyc pt. 3

I’m kind of a wordy person. I know this. I tried really hard to make this update post as concise as possible, but even still it is way long. And yes, wordy. Sorry?

First, before I get into it, I have to correct an error. While writing this I went to make comments on a film that I thought I had previously listed. The film certainly wasn’t overlooked as I had it on my list, but somewhere between writing and posting the original “for you consideration” it got lost in the shuffle. Which just will not do. It’s a lovely film and it very justly has a good shot at a Best Picture nomination. So, without further ado I present:

Another Year
December 31
The film charts a single year in the life of happily married baby-boomers Tom (Jim Brodbent) and Gerri (Ruth Sheen) and their friends and family. From their devoted 30 year-old son Joe (Oliver Maltman), whose singledom concerns him more than he lets on, to Ken (Peter Wight), a rudderless, borderline-alcoholic college pal of Tom’s, and especially co-worker Mary (Lesley Manville) twice-divorced and desperate for companionship. Another Year had its world premier in Cannes back in May and since then has also shown at Telluride & Toronto and will also play at the New York & London festivals. Reviews out so far are overwhelmingly positive. Especially making note of Lesley Manville’s performance and director Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky).


Now, for the "quick" updates promised (in order of release)

Never Let Me Go
This one is losing a bit of steam. It’s seems to be dividing the audiences at TIFF and thus has garnered a lot of mixed reviews there. The majority of the not so favorable reviews seem to sight that the film is too emotionally dry and distant.
I think it’s worth nothing that The Reader had very similar reviews and went on to score 5 Oscar nominations in 2008 with Kate Winslet walking away with the Leading Actress statue. So, I wouldn't say Never Let Me Go is completely out of the mix just yet.
However, I can see Fox Searchlight putting all of their money towards 127 Hours & Black Swan for a campaign, which means Never Let Me Go is going to come up short. Unless Ebert throws a 4-star review its way and it gets some major traction upon release I think this one is going to be fighting an uphill battle.
* Wanted to note that the film opened in extremely limited release on Wednesday (9/15) only showing in 4 theaters and in just two days has made a pretty solid $44,501.


The Social Network
A few weeks back, in a ground-breaking move, director David Fincher handpicked a group of film bloggers and invited them to see an early screening of his film. While a full review is still under embargo, the embargo on initial thoughts of the movie lifted this week and the bloggers are jizzing themselves over this film.
To read what the bloggers are saying about this film go here. (Drew McWeeny’s of HitFix is an especially good read – here is the article in full)
They like it. A lot.
I'm thinking this one is a lock for breaking into the Top Ten.

Secretariat
It’s still holding the position of “possible contender for The Blind Side spot”. With such a strong year in film I can easily see this one getting pushed out of the way. However, if it makes a big splash and then goes on to make big box office green (not unlike The Blind Side) it’s got a shot. Everyone likes a feel good family movie right?


Hereafter
My heart broke a little bit this week when the reviews for Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter started coming out. The film screened for a small group of press at TIFF and despite an embargo, initial thoughts on the movie were put into the blogoshere. And they were decidedly negative. I mean, bloggers were practically shouting from the rooftops how much they hated it. Film critics, however, were mostly silent – instead of giving their initial thoughts they seem to be waiting until they can give a full review. A very choice few, namely Ebert & Variety, seemed to enjoy it. It seems this film will undoubtedly get mixed reviews, and while the Cult of Clint is strong, not sure it’s strong enough in a year with such a stacked list for possible Best Picture.
Incidentally, the trailer was released earlier this week as well:



127 Hours
This film came into TIFF with an incredible about of positive buzz and that hasn’t disappeared at all this week. As one critic put it “At this point the question is not if 127 Hours will be nominated for an Oscar but how many. Best Picture is a no-brainer. Consider one spot already taken with nine more spots to be fought for.” And another says, “Believe the hype: 127 Hours is tremendous. Might be my favorite TIFF film so far.” Source


Fair Game
No new news on this one, except for the release of a new poster.


Love and Other Drugs
Another one with no new news. And while it is supposed to be “great”, at this point in time it is sight unseen.


The King’s Speech
If I had to pick just one contender that was sure to be in the Top Ten, this is one I would choose. I mean, at this point, there is no way this film isn’t getting nominated. The film is just as beloved at TIFF as it was in Telluride. And unlike many other contenders that are splitting audiences, everyone seems to agree this one of the better films they are seeing, and this is an across-the-board reaction.


Black Swan
After a splashy premier in Venice the tide on this one seems to be turning a little bit too. It’s getting quite a few mixed reviews while at TIFF; and some are downright horrible - like this one from Michael Phillips at the Chicago Tribune “It’s The Red Shoes cast visually in severe tones of black, white and grim, determined gray… In this backstage snake pit, the venom flows well past Red Shoes territory and spills out, deliriously, somewhere near Showgirls.” I still think it’s got a pretty good shot for a Best Picture nomination and Portman seems like a lock for a Leading Actress nod; Aronofsky might pull one for director as well. It’s just got too much Oscar Bait involved for a straight up pass.


Miral
I think this one is officially out of the race.


The Fighter
This one is another one that remains “sight unseen”, but it’s got great buzz surrounding it. I think it has the possibly to really change things up. All indications point to it being a powerful piece of work and Christian Bale is supposedly outstanding (so much so that a lead actor push was considered at one point).
The trailer was released this past Wednesday:

* For a fun little bonus check out this article at Awards Daily - Oscar Loves Boxing.


Somewhere
Somewhere seemed to be on its way out of the race after the lukewarm reception it got in Venice, but then, seemed to get a bit of a reprieve by winning the Golden Lion for Best Picture at the Festival. The win shocked pretty much every critic/film blogger. And charges of favoritism by Jury President Quentin Tarantino isn’t going to help. It’s another one with nice Oscar Bait behind it, but I’m thinking a place in the Top Ten isn’t likely.


True Grit
Another “sight unseen” with big buzz. (And when I say sight unseen, I mean really unseen. No trailer yet and still only one still released.) But I’ve got a good feeling this one is going to be great.


Blue Valentine
Blue Valentine was at TIFF this week, and like Sundance and Cannes before it, audiences are loving it all over again. I’ve probably said it 5 times within this post already, but its stiff competition this year for Best Picture. Hopefully The Weinstein Co. is up for a major campaign. Word still continues to circle around Gossling for a Leading Actor nod.


All Good Things
Its not showing at any festivals because of its late acquisition so positive buzz and word of mouth just isn’t going to be as big. The festivals really kick off the awards season and it’s where most movies start their awards season campaign. Without the help of a festival and a major studio behind the film (to foot the bill for prints & advertising) this time of the year a small indie is going to get lost in the shuffle.


Winter’s Bone
The Fall Festivals have put the earlier releases far out of mind for the moment. Jennifer Lawrence has been doing a few interviews with the print media this past month, so maybe it won’t be completely lost in the mix. But, you know, stiff competition and all that. Still think Lawrence is in the running for a nod though.


Toy Story 3
It’s pretty much a lock. After "Up" was nominated in the big category last year do you really think a more critically acclaimed and bigger hit won't make the dance this time around?


Inception
Another one that I think is a lock. It’s one of the most imaginative studio films ever released, and a solid money maker. And two months after its release people are still talking about it. It’s a cultural phenomenon.


The Kids are All right
It’s still in the running. Like Winter’s Bone it was a Sundance darling and opened earlier this year. It drew nicely this summer, but not spectacularly – a better gross would have helped, but it has its fans around town.


Get Low
Early release problems again. It preformed admirably on the limited art house circuit and Robert Duval has many friends in the Academy, but it’s probably out for Best Picture. Duval is still on the list for Leading Actor.


The Tree of Life
This one is officially out of the race. Not because it’s not good enough though, Fox Searchlight bought the film and plans to distribute it in 2011. Back to waiting.


Now for some new additions to the contenders:

Rabbit Hole
Adapted for the screen from David Lindsay-Abaire’s 2007 Pulitzer-Prize winning play (which also won Cynthia Nixon a Tony), Rabbit Hole is the story of a couple’s (Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart) struggle to salvage their marriage in the wake of the death of their four-year-old son. Heading into TIFF the film did not have a distributer, Lionsgate has since snatched the film up and more importantly is releasing it before the end of the year. In addition to the Best Picture talk many critics are sighting both Kidman & Eckhart for Actor awards. No word yet on a release date, but I’m thinking sometime this December.
No trailer, but 2 released clips from the film are available:



The Town
It’s a huge long shot, but if the word around this film after its Venice/TIFF debut is any indication it deserves a look at. The Town is the story of Doug MacRay (Ben Affleck) the leader of a group of bank robbers and the bank manager, Claire Keesey (Rebecca Hall) he took hostage on the gangs’ latest job. The buzz around this film and Affleck (it’s his sophomore directorial effort) is strong. Newsweek heaps on the praise with their review: “Affleck’s heist movie The Town is part of a career turnaround so amazing that he looks like the new Clint Eastwood. Seriously. Affleck directed, stars in, and co-wrote The Town, a suspenseful, fiercely paced movie about bank robbers that is also about love, brotherhood, and the desperate need to escape a crooked life. It proves that Gone Baby Gone, his accomplished directing debut, was no fluke.” Being compared to Eastwood? That’s some serious shit right there. Also, in its corner? The film is cleaning up with a Broadcast Film Critics score of 88. It’s pretty genre though, and the academy tends to shy away from that.
The film opened today (9/17).



In summation:

Most Likely To Get a Nomination
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Inception
Toy Story 3
127 Hours

Good Shot at a Nomination
The Kids are All Right
Black Swan
Another Year

The Maybe’s (Mixed Reactions with Oscar Bait Behind Them)
Hereafter
Somewhere

Possible Contenders (Sight Unseen)
True Grit
The Figher
Love and Other Drugs

Possible for The Blind Slide Spot
Secretariat

Wild Cards
Rabbit Hole
Blue Valentine
Never Let Me Go
Winter’s Bone
Fair Game
Get Low
The Town

Out
All Good Things
Miral
The Tree of Life