fyc pt. 5

A little (or a lot) behind on the weekly update. Last week was a whirlwind. First the news from my current In Contention picks:

The Social Network
Columbia Pictures great big hope The Social Network passed two crucial hurdles this past weekend. The first was opening number one at the domestic box office. The other was a smaller but no less telling test: playing well to a packed house of Academy voters.
How a movie plays at official Academy screenings is crucial—although not entirely predictive. Even if members like a Bond movie, that doesn’t mean they’ll wind up voting for it. They watch each movie with a fierce intensity. They’re checking out every aspect—production design, acting, writing, costumes, cinematography, editing, score, sound, etc. And they ALWAYS sit through all the credits. Source
As I said, the film opened at number 1 and met (but did not exceed) expectations with a 22.4 million opening weekend. (As of Thursday 10/7 the film has a total box office of 30.5 M.) This film looks like it will be more tortoise than hare. Figures show that the film opened incredibly strong in large cites on both the East & West coasts, however it failed to impress the middle of the country. To stay in the game and at the top of the charts the film is going to have to get the heartland out to the theater. I don’t foresee this being a problem. This film is the type that will get large word of mouth and will continue to attract a new audience for weeks to come. It’s going to be a slow build, but slow and steady wins the race right?


Secretariat
Moving right along from a film that failed to impress the heartland to one that most likely will have the red states standing up and cheering. The reviews for Secretariat have been good, but not amazing (Rotten Tomatoes currently scores the movie with a 66% rating, but it did get the Seal of Approval from the BFCA with a score of 85). The opening weekend projections aren’t great. Life As We Know It (that Kathryn Heigl movie with the baby) is also opening this weekend and the two films will be duking it out for the number one spot. Projections place Secretariat at an opening of around 15-16M, if it opens any lower than that (or horror of horrors opens in third behind Life and The Social Network) there could be a problem. Disney, however, is bringing out the big guns. A recent ad blurb declared “This is the Blind Side of 2010!” And last weekend, in addition to holding hundreds of sneak previews across the county, Disney screened Secretariat more than 250 times nationwide at military bases and large churches. There was even a recent screening for the polo-playing set in the Hamptons. Disney knows where the majority of their audience is likely to come from and is catering right to them.
While the critics have been split on their reviews of the film one thing they almost all have in common is their praise for Diane Lane. Disney desperately wants nominations for their movie and they will campaign fiercely for it. At this point I don’t see the movie pulling off a Best Picture nomination, but Diane Lane certainly is in contention for a nod.

Edit to add: right before I went to publish this report from Deadline hit the wire. And so it begins........

It's very early, obviously. But Disney sources already are admitting that Secretariat is underperforming today and this weekend. For No. 1, my box office gurus say it should come down to the wire between Warner Bros' Life As We Know It and Sony's holdover The Social Network. Source

127 Hours
Yesterday (10/7) the first full trailer for 127 Hours made its debut along with a new poster. The previous teaser trailer was enough to get me interested, but after watching the full thing? I.Can’t.Wait.To.See. If this doesn’t give you chills………




True Grit
Finally! Something from this film! A teaser trailer was released over a week ago (9/27), then last Friday (10/1) an awesome looking poster made it’s way onto the web and finally this Monday (9/4) the full length trailer was released. I am so excited for this film. Just looking at the footage alone and I think we’re talking serious Oscar nominations – in multiple categories. Combine Bridges, Damon, Brolin & The Coens? Please.
Teaser Trailer

Full Length Trailer




Blue Valentine
Early this afternoon surprising news broke that the MPAA ratings board slapped an NC-17 on the film. Immediately bloggers and critics sounded off on how ridiculous they think the rating is. I have to think that the Weinstein Co. will fight the rating; and if they fail in the appeals process will then be forced to cut the film to secure an R rating. Leaving it as is kills its chances of awards recognition. The reason for the rating according to Mike Fleming at Deadline who broke the story:

I'm told the rating was given for a scene in which the characters played by Gosling and Williams try to save their crumbling marriage by spending a night away in a hotel. They get drunk and their problems intensify when he wants to have sex and she doesn't, but will to get him off her back. That hurts his pride and the result is an upsetting scene that makes you squirm, but is an honest one that establishes clearly that this couple has nothing left and isn't going to make it because love has turned into contempt. There is barely any nudity in the scene and there is no violence. It was hardly a moment that would make you think, well here comes an NC-17.

Guy Lodge at In Contention goes on to say “I must profess to being absolutely stumped as to what content in the film could have provoked this decision. It’s a harsh, adult-oriented drama, make no mistake, but it doesn’t even feature explicit nudity, much less any beyond-the-pale activity.”
A few hours after that news broke the first trailer for the film was released. Capitalizing on the controversy? Smart play Mr. Weinstein.



Now, onto 2 new films. Made In Dagenham is a film that I have had in my notes to talk about for a few weeks now, especially after its very warm reception in Toronto. And The Way Back which was picked up at the Tulluride Film Festival and will in fact have a qualifying Oscar run.


Made In Dagenham
November 19
Made In Dagenham is a dramatization of the 1968 strike at the Ford Dagenham car plant, where female workers walked out in protest against sexual discrimination and their ensuing fight for equal pay. The film stars the award winning Sally Hawkins and many are singling out her performance as Oscar nomination worthy. I expect the film to get some nice buzz as its release date nears and then some excellent word of mouth to help push it along.
The international trailer is below:



The Way Back
December 29
The Way Back is a fact-based story of the escape of 7 soldiers from a Siberian prison in 1940. It is based on several sources, most notably the Slavomir Rawicz book The Long Walk: The True Story of a Trek to Freedom. The book is Rawicz's account of being captured by the Red Army in 1939 and his journey to freedom with other inmates. The group crossed the Siberian arctic, the Gobi desert and the Himalayas, finally settling in Tibet and India.
The film made its world premiere in Telluride and saw Newmarket Films pick it up for distribution on opening day of the Film Festival. It was immediately slated for a January 21, 2011 wide release date, but there was no indication that it would have a presence in the Oscar season.
On Tuesday (10/5) a press release went out and The Way Back will get its Oscar run this year with an opening on Dec. 29 in L.A. before expanding to theaters in January.

After the positive reception and critical acclaim we received at Telluride, it was clear that THE WAY BACK should have an Oscar qualifying run. It was incredibly gratifying that audiences and critics responded so favorably to Peter Weir’s vision, the actors’ outstanding performances, and the stunning craftwork.
- Nigel Sinclair, CEO of Newmarket Films in Tuesday’s press release

Not only is this film boasting (6-time Oscar nominated) Peter Weir as its director, but the cast is stellar: Ed Harris, Colin Farrell, Jim Sturgess and Saoirse Ronan. (Both Harris and Farrell’s performances have been singled out by critics as awards worthy.) The cinematography looks absolutely gorgeous, so I could possibly see some nominations there as well.
And before we get to the trailer, fun little tidbit: Scott Rudin is listed as executive producer on this film, and is also a producer on two rival films – The Social Network and True Grit. Not a bad year for him, eh?